“The time to do lifeboat drills is not after the ship has struck an iceberg”
– Nick Murray
In last month’s article, we focused on “Having a Good Memory” as one of the great qualities to adopt for anyone who wants to become a great investor. This month we focus on a similar, but slightly different quality…Great Investors Don’t get Surprised
Great investors understand that all good investing is really simply an exercise in the control of our emotions in the face of uncertainty about the future. In particular, there is an inverse relationship between the intensity of the emotion that we may be experiencing at any given moment, and our ability to think and act rationally. As our emotions crank up, our ability to act effectively begins to deteriorate. As a result, emotion is the enemy of sound investing policy.
Preparations are underway for the birth of a New Year, as 2017 will soon be upon us. In a few days, our nation will be swept away by a collective desire to make our annual Resolutions, and promises to ourselves that we will be skinnier, smarter, more successful, and more disciplined in the coming year.
Zeke the Elf (and cousin of one of our founders, Gerald ‘Zeke’ Strid) took a moment out of his busy holiday schedule to record a very special Christmas message for you…
Nick Murray is a noted author and consultant in the financial services industry. We are subscribers to his monthly newsletter, which is a wonderful publication filled with great wisdom every month. This week he sent out a Christmas message to all of his subscribers which we found so wonderful we felt it should be shared:
“It is in giving that we receive.”
– Francis of Assisi
As we approach the holiday season, I’d like to offer all of our readers my most sincere best wishes for a wonderful holiday week next week. We at Concentus are thankful to have you as part of our community, and would like to wish you a wonderful Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah and all the best of health, happiness, and prosperity in 2017!
Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell.”
– Sir John Templeton
In last month’s article, we focused on “being observant” as one of the great qualities to adopt for anyone who wants to become a great investor. This month we focus on a similar, but slightly different quality…Great Investors have a Healthy Memory
There is great wisdom in John Templeton’s quote above, as it recognizes investor sentiment as an enormously important factor in stock market cycles. In our view, long term market cycles are largely dictated by “the mood of the crowd”, and great investors are well served to pay attention to investor sentiment. To paraphrase Templeton, we have a belief that no great, multi-year bull market can begin unless the majority of the investing public is terrified of losing money in stocks, and that their equity holdings can tank at any moment, and for any reason. Alternatively, no terrible bear market can occur unless investors are complacent, and convinced that stocks can’t go down at all, and that their greatest risk in their stock portfolios is that someone else is earning bigger returns than they are.
When we turn on the TV, we’re expecting to be entertained on some level. It doesn’t matter if it’s HBO or CNBC. Now, we may not think about it that way, but producers focused on attracting eyeballs. I always remind myself that there is an entertainment element to the Financial ‘news’. It isn’t meant for investors, but for traders, people who believe speed is paramount.
“The most surprising development about the expanding world of abundance in the 21st century is that it most richly rewards those individuals who are increasingly grateful for every aspect of the extraordinary world that is being created around them. To the degree that you are grateful for what you have, you will get more of what you want.”
– Dan Sullivan, author and founder of Strategic Coach®
As we approach the holiday season, I’d like to offer all of our readers my most sincere best wishes for a wonderful Thanksgiving next week. We at Concentus are thankful to have you as part of our community!
I am quite certain that by now, everyone reading this has been bombarded by television, radio, and print media opinions about the geopolitical implications of last night’s election results. Although there is certainly a wide variety of opinion, one thing that we all can agree is that Donald Trump’s victory was an historic event, that has the potential to significantly reshape the landscape of our country and world in coming years.
Of course, this result also has taken investors somewhat by surprise, and many are seeking to make some sense of the implications of the election on the markets. We thought it might be helpful to provide some perspective.